29 September, 2008

KSE made history with lowest ever volumes as only 1.668 million shares traded. Foreigners bought 14% and sold 0.1% in such grim activity. No CFS market was today and CFS value stands at 15.411 billion rupees with annualized rate of 37.51%

 

Technically market is maintaining its strong bearish downward trend.

 

Recomendation : Sideline 

 

Internationally stocks are not impressed with USD 700 billion package. Investors are also waiting on a planned House vote on an unpopular $700 billion plan to rescue troubled financial companies. Oil prices sank more than $5 to almost $101 a barrel Monday on concerns that economic growth will slow across the globe despite a tentative agreement in Washington on a $700 billion bailout package to stabilize the U.S. financial system.

 

KSE calander: 

• KSE board meeting tomorrow to discuss current market situation.

Board meetings: 

 

30^th  september, 2008

• Meezan Islamic Income Fund
• Sazger Engineering Works Ltd
• Pakistan Income Fund
• Zephyr Textiles Ltd
• Pak-Gulf Leasing Co. Ltd

 

Rumors:  

• Membership Card prices have fallen like nine pins.

27 September, 2008

The borad of directors in a meeting held on 25th september, 2008 regarding lifting the freez put in place from 28th august, 2008 has decided to continue with current flooring system. Certain measures have been initiated like banning of short sale in october contract. A fund of 20 Billion ruppes under NIT managment would be fully active to support the market etc. It seems market participants are trying there best to collect liquidity from all channels and stream line them for a normalize activity in local brouse. 

On last day of september contract market registered another record of low volumes with only 2.4775 million shares manage to change hands.  Foreigners bought 21% while sold 0.4% despite grim activity. CFS Financing is up 5% at 15.411 billion rupees while average CFS rate is now 37.51%. 

Technically market has registred another new low on weekly charts. fostering market current strong bearish downward trend. 

In above Chart as you can see hardly there has been any accumulation or distribution since early september. Confirming market is not trending; trading in side ways market can possibily be fruitless. 

Recomendation : Sideline 

Internationally In US senate leader saying significant progress has been made on bailout package. while chinese regulators called this measure as "ridiculous" what would be the exact details of the package we will have to wait and see.

KSE calander: 

• PSO SPOT from friday {125% final dividend}

Board meetings: 

27th september, 2008

• SNGP 
• Thal limited
• Sardar chemical
• Unilever pakistan food ltd

Rumors:  

• one of the big brokers sold property in both Lahore and karachi to adjust with mar to market  losses. 
  
• Price of room in karachi stock exchange are now under Rs. 2 core.

24 September, 2008

Karachi stock exchange continued its march towards lack luster performance with only 2.7 million shares managed to change hands. Only 9 % stocks closed positive 19% negative while 71 % stocks remained unchanged; forcing kse-100 to close 9 points down. Foreigners remained net sellers with grim activity of 2 % buy and 3 % sell. CFS financing is now down to a new level of 14.691 billion rupees with annualized rate of 36.32 % adding another 13 BPS.

Technically charts are showing no change what so ever over market sentiment. Strong bearish downward trend persist. Any buying bet would be over 9414 with strong momentum and volume.

Board meetings on 25th September, 2008

• Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd (11:00 am)
• Crescent Textile Mills Ltd (11:30 am)
• Nagina Cotton Mills Ltd (12:00 noon)
  
• Noon Standard Chartered Leasing Ltd (10:00 am)
  
• Dreamworld Ltd (10:30 am)
  
• Dawood Capital Managements Ltd (11:00 am) 
  
• Dawood Money Market Fund (11:00 am)
  
• Dawood Islamic Fund (11:00 am) 
  
• First Dawood Mutual Fund (11:00 am)
  
• Sajjad Textile Mills Ltd (11:00 am)
  
• Reliance Income Fund (11:00 am)
  

Recomendation : Remin Side line.

International markets are started to consolidate as details are coming out. Warren Buffet’s decision to invest $5 billion in Goldman Sachs Group Inc; AIG takes $85B deal from Fed and Bush administration taking serious steps to curb economical choas. 

23 September, 2008

Lack luster activity continued at karachi stock exchange. 16% stocks went up, 11% down while 72% stocks remained without changed. Leverage investors preferred to sell as CFS financing rate put more gains currently at 36.19% while total investment through CFS is down to 15.09 billion ruppes. Along leverage traders foreigners joined to Sold 44% and bought only 3% out of total activity. MCB remained the volume leader with 2.7 million shares. Suggesting foreigners took exit in this particular script. 

Technically as you can see market is in congestion zone. Bears need to find an exit as they are freezed. Recomendation =  Remain Side line.

International market are having volatile sessions mainly due to speculation over Bail out package. After the hearing things would settle a bit. 

22 September, 2008

Lack luster performance continued at the local brouse with another day of record low volumes. Investors have totally lost confidence in equity market. Dolor made another high against Rupee in intra day trading. where as CFS financing came down to 15.3 billion while annulazied rate surged to stagering 32.38% This huge cost of investement would further push leverage investors aside. foreigners in such  grim activity bought 11% and sold 0.01% out of total market activity whose value stood less than 300 million rupees.

Technically kse-100 is maintaining its strong downward bearish trend.

International commodity prices agin going up as oil touching 110 $ per barrel. while gold going north and stretching for 900$ per ounce. To increase liquidity central banks have allowed different investment banks to receive deposits and establish commercial banking units. This would open another front of war against deposits. Time would tell as how buying power returns.

Money market funds with MCB DCF and KASB LF posting 12.58% and 11.45%, respectively. Jul08 returns were even higher than the previous month. therefore put your money in money market fund for the time being.

21 September, 2008

Activity at local bourse seems to be at halt. Volumes have gone considerable down as just 4.3 million shares traded on Friday which is another record. 

Rupee trading over 78 rupees against dolor is forcing foreigners to take an exit from market; as they are suffering double loss. Foreigners bought 27% and sold 6% out of total activity in the market. Foreign reserves are now below 9 billion dolor mark. CFS financing is down to 15.6 billion rupees. However severe liquidity crunch pushed CFS rate at 20.6%. 

Internationally economic slow down in US would have its effect on rest of the world; considering 30% of world GDP is linked with US economy. Political interv

ention improved the sentiment as central banks around the world pumped liquidity in the market. Sub prime assets are estimated be over 500 billion US$ to write of such huge amount of bad debt certain institution will have to sacrifice. 

Domestic law and order situation seems to be getting worse day by day. Bomb blast at Marriott hotel Islamabad is clear indication that militants are not going to let it go that easy. Political stability has started to return as President Asif ali Zardari made first speech to joint session of national assembly and parliament. But a clear policy on economic grounds is still awaited. 

Among flood of negative news a committee was formed to get nuclear power plant to solve electricity crisis. Construction of small and medium dams is also been hinted. Foreign remittances are marginally up. 

Technically market is in long bearish channel another low on weekly charts suggest market has still not found its bottom. It is consolidating in a very narrow range. Trenless market is very difficult to trade. enter wil the trend till then you be a spectator.

KSE board is scheduled to meet on 25th either to continue or remove current circuit breaker. Decision to buy back shares of NBP and OGDC and many other small companies is in the pipeline. To improve sentiment this is one positive but considering lack of depth in our market it would be another step to make it shallower. 

If you an investment savvy put your money in some money market fund. From equity side it's not your cup of tea.

040908

Another dull day. foreigners selling like crazy. sold over Rs. 1 billion after market freezed on 27aug level. Buy above, 9350

030908

Fifth consecutive positive closing of kse-100 index. Interestingly market has not touched the previous day's low in all those five days. With this short range and continuation of cooling period scripts falling to offer any attraction to local investors to be active once again; foreigner investment which showed net buy positions for the day, Strategy of wait and see seems to be the best fit so far.

020908

Another trading day ended without any significant impact. All eyes on International crude Oil.
Best strategy would be to remain side line.

Nrl is the only stock which looks good on charts. increase position with Stop placed Closing below 203. Immediate Target can be in the range of 240-245.

010908

Once again lack luster activity continued for the first trading day of the week. Once again Foreigners remained net buyers in the market. Which will certainly improve the local sentiment. International Oil prices also coming down on weakening hurricane. Again this is good development on current account lowering the import bill in addition to curtail imported domestic inflation. Asian market took some hit as the liquidity crunch continues. Inter bank dolor rate is up which is a sign of worry. However 77 remains to be the major resistance.



Technically market need to give couple of positive percentage gains to make me switch sides. Failing to do so market immediate support lies around 8700 which again currently is on mercy of freezing period. Bulls and bears seem to be organizing within their camps. therefore Remain sideline.

TOP pick : NRL